Bahia — Gremio : Match Preview and Prediction for October 20,2025

Bahia’s Dominant Home Advantage

The decisive factor in this upcoming match is their home stadium, Arena Fonte Nova. At home, Bahia transforms into a formidable force. Examining the cold hard statistics, Rogerio Ceni’s squad ranks second in the league for their home performance, securing an impressive 76.9% of available points. This record includes 9 victories from 13 home fixtures.

Triumphs Over Top Rivals at Home

Recently, this very stadium witnessed the downfall of league leaders Palmeiras and second-placed Flamengo. Both formidable teams left empty-handed, each suffering a 0-1 defeat. This performance highlights Bahia’s exceptional ability to focus and clinch crucial results against top-tier opponents, particularly when playing on their home turf.

Analyzing Bahia’s Recent Derby Defeat

Admittedly, Bahia suffered a 2-1 defeat in their last match, the Ba-Vi derby against Vitoria. However, a deeper look reveals important context. In that encounter, Bahia was missing several pivotal players, including full-back Gilberto and striker Willian Jose, who were serving suspensions. Despite the loss, Ceni’s team maintained 66% possession, indicating a strong degree of control even with a depleted squad.

Key Player Returns and Enhanced Attack

Crucially, these key players are returning to action for the match against Gremio. Furthermore, Argentine defender Ramos Mingo has recovered and is now training with the main squad. The reintegration of three core players represents a massive boost ahead of this home fixture. Considering Bahia has scored in all 13 of their home matches this season, their attack, bolstered by the return of Willian Jose, is expected to be even more potent.

Gremio’s Struggling Away Form

Gremio approaches this away fixture burdened with significant challenges. Mano Menezes’ team is currently languishing in the mid-table at 11th position, and their performance on the road has been particularly lackluster. Their away statistics are disheartening: they rank 13th for away form, with only 3 victories from 14 matches, coupled with a negative goal difference of 15-22.

Home vs Away Performance & Historical Context

Gremio’s recent 2-0 victory over Sao Paulo should not be misleading. That match was played at home, where Gremio typically exhibits greater strength. The situation is starkly different when they play away. Historically, Gremio has also not dominated in Salvador: out of 35 past encounters, Bahia has secured 14 wins, while Gremio has managed 12.

Key Player Absences for Gremio

However, Menezes’ primary concern is the significant roster depletion. Several crucial players will be unavailable for the match in Salvador. Midfielder Arthur and forward Alisson sustained injuries in the game against Sao Paulo and did not even travel with the squad. Furthermore, defensive midfielder Dodi is sidelined due to suspension after accumulating too many yellow cards.

Impact of Absences on Gremio’s Offensive Capabilities

The absence of three key players from the starting lineup, particularly in the central midfield and attack, severely disrupts team cohesion. Gremio already struggles offensively, ranking 19th in the league for total shots (10.64 per match) and shots from inside the box. Without Alisson and with necessary adjustments in central midfield, creating scoring opportunities will become an even greater challenge.