Gremio — Sao Paulo : Match Preview and Prediction for October 17,2025
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Gremio
Mano Menezes
Coach since April 21, 2025
Gremio’s Defensive Crisis
Let’s get straight to the facts. Gremio is facing colossal squad issues, particularly in defense. Suspensions have sidelined two key defenders, Walter Kannemann and Marlon. On top of that, injuries to Fabian Balbuena and first-choice goalkeeper Tiago Volpi further exacerbate the situation. These aren’t just minor setbacks; they represent a complete defensive overhaul right before the match.Managerial Challenges and Statistical Insights
Manager Mano Menezes will be forced to piece together a defense from available players. This will inevitably lead to a lack of cohesion and potential errors. The statistics from the last five games support this: the team conceded moments with an expected goals (xG) against of 2.28 per match. This is a very high figure, indicating defensive vulnerabilities even before these recent personnel losses.Offensive Output and Internal Strife
Despite the squad challenges, the team has managed to be effective in attack. In the same five recent matches, Gremio scored eight goals, even though their expected goals (xG) per game was only 0.82. This highlights an exceptionally high conversion rate. Adding to the internal problems, the situation with striker Kike Oliveira, who was fined for disciplinary breaches and criticizing the coach, creates a tense atmosphere. Such an environment rarely fosters concentration, especially in defense.League Table
#
Team
P
W
D
L
G
Pts
11
Vasco da Gama-RJ
27
9
6
12
42-41
33
12
Corinthians-SP
27
8
9
10
29-32
33
13
Gremio
27
8
9
10
28-33
33
14
Atletico Mineiro
26
8
8
10
25-30
32
15
Internacional-RS
27
8
8
11
33-40
32
Copa Sudamericana
Injuries and Suspensions
- Suspension Marlon Key Player DEF
25 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed - Injury Martin Braithwaite Key Player FWD35 matches played15 goals scoredSeptember 13 out since5 matches missed
- Injury Tiago Volpi Key Player GK41 matches played2 goals scoredSeptember 25 out since3 matches missed
- Injury Fabian Balbuena Starting Player DEF3 matches played1 goal scoredAugust 24 out since7 matches missed
- Injury Gustavo Cuellar Starting Player MID18 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 21 out since4 matches missed
- Suspension Walter Kannemann Starting Player DEF20 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Carlos Vinicius Rotation Player FWD4 matches played1 goal scoredSeptember 21 out since4 matches missed
- Injury Cristian Olivera Rotation Player FWD33 matches played5 goals scoredSeptember 28 out since2 matches missed
- Suspension Andre Henrique Rotation Player FWD28 matches played4 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Willian Rotation Player FWD3 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 28 out since2 matches missed
- Injury Mathias Villasanti Rotation Player MID34 matches played0 goals scoredAugust 17 out since8 matches missed
- Injury Joao Pedro Rotation Player DEF21 matches played1 goal scoredSeptember 21 out since4 matches missed
- Injury Miguel Monsalve Reserve Player MID28 matches played3 goals scoredJuly 17 out since15 matches missed
- Injury Rodrigo Ely Reserve Player DEF9 matches played0 goals scoredApril 25 out since30 matches missed
Players Returned to Squad
- Suspension Elisson Starting Player FWD29 matches played2 goals scoredOctober 2 out since1 match missed
Sao Paulo
Hernan Crespo
Coach since June 18, 2025
Sao Paulo’s Midfield Vulnerabilities
Sao Paulo faces equally significant challenges, also impacting their defensive structure. Key defensive midfielder Damian Bobadilla will not play – he simply won’t recover in time after national team matches in Asia. His replacement, Pablo Maia, is serving a suspension. This means the central midfield, crucial for disrupting opponent attacks, is completely depleted.Experimental Line-ups and High-Scoring Games
Manager Hernan Crespo will have to field an experimental lineup in the holding midfield, which opens a clear path to Sao Paulo’s goal. The team’s last match before the international break vividly illustrates this. It was a fiery derby against Palmeiras, ending in a 2-3 defeat. Five goals in a single game! Sao Paulo scored two but conceded three, indicating their propensity for open, high-scoring matches with plenty of chances for both sides.Statistical Evidence of Offensive Play
In that match against Palmeiras, the team created chances worth 1.86 xG and allowed 1.40 xG. This totals 3.26 expected goals. These figures unequivocally suggest that games involving Sao Paulo tend to be high-scoring. The weakened central midfield will only exacerbate this trend.League Table
#
Team
P
W
D
L
G
Pts
6
Bahia
26
12
7
7
34-30
43
7
Fluminense
26
11
5
10
34-33
38
8
Sao Paulo
27
10
8
9
31-28
38
9
RB Bragantino
28
10
6
12
34-43
36
10
Ceara
27
9
8
10
26-24
35
Copa Libertadores Qualification
Copa Sudamericana
Injuries and Suspensions
- Injury Andre Silva Rotation Player FWD43 matches played14 goals scoredAugust 25 out since8 matches missed
- Suspension Pablo Maia Rotation Player MID33 matches played2 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Jonathan Calleri Reserve Player FWD18 matches played3 goals scoredMay 3 out since30 matches missed
- Injury Ryan Francisco Reserve Player FWD15 matches played3 goals scoredJuly 12 out since20 matches missed
- Injury Luan Silva Reserve Player MID7 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 22 out since4 matches missed
Players Doubtful
- Injury Marcos Antonio Rotation Player MID34 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 5 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Rafael Toloi Rotation Player DEF3 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 30 out since2 matches missed
Players Returned to Squad
- Injury Nahuel Ferraresi Starting Player DEF40 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 11 out since0 matches missed
- Suspension Emiliano Rigoni Rotation Player FWD5 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 3 out since1 match missed
Rory Whitfield
