Mainz 05 — Werder Bremen : Match Preview and Prediction for November 01,2025

Werder’s Favorable Schedule

Werder Bremen has enjoyed a comfortable schedule recently, allowing them to remain undefeated for three consecutive rounds. Mainz is expected to be another manageable opponent, even on the road.

Mainz’s Domestic Struggles

Mainz currently sits in the 16th transitional spot in the league. Their participation in the Europa Conference League group stage seems to be affecting their performance. A string of four losses is only broken by two victories in European competitions, where they are sixth in their group. Their domestic balance has shifted drastically into the negative after being eliminated from the German Cup in the second round by Stuttgart at home (0-2).

Werder’s Improved Form

After heavy defeats to Freiburg (0-3) and Bayern (0-4), Werder has accumulated seven out of a possible nine points against St. Pauli (1-0), Heidenheim (2-2), and Union Berlin (1-0). All their victories were against teams in the lower half of the table. Werder has now overtaken Union Berlin due to their head-to-head win and moved into ninth place. They haven’t necessarily started scoring significantly more, but weaker opponents are failing to capitalize on their chances, as seen with Heidenheim at home (3.26 xGA).

Goal Expectation and Betting Tip

Mainz has also scored fewer goals than expected, trailing by 2.87 goals, and an average of two goals conceded per game adds further concern for their prospects. Since Werder creates even fewer chances (11.03 xG) than the “Carnival club” (11.87 xG), I’m placing a bet on Under 2.5 Total Goals, despite the odds being around 2.50. A successful bet would yield a good profit.