Match Overview

The UEFA 2025/26 Group Stage Matchday 3 fixture between Germany’s Mainz and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Zrinjski is scheduled for October 23rd at the Mewa Arena. This preview provides an in-depth analysis, betting tips, odds, and key statistics for the Mainz vs Zrinjski encounter.

Mainz

Mainz’s Current Form

Under Bo Henriksen’s guidance, Mainz secured an away victory against Omonia (1-0) in their opening match. This triumph marked a historic moment for Mainz, as it was their first instance of achieving two consecutive wins in European competitions. Furthermore, the team managed to keep a clean sheet for the third time in their last five European outings. It’s also worth noting that the club has consistently scored in 12 of their last 13 European fixtures. The German side currently sits 13th in the overall group standings.

• Mainz has remained undefeated in their last six home European matches, recording three wins and three draws.
• The club has not conceded more than one goal in any of their last six home European encounters.
• Mainz has scored either one or two goals in five of their last six home matches in European club competitions.

Expected Lineup for Mainz (3-4-3)*

Expected Lineup for Mainz

Robin Zentner – Danny da Costa, Stefan Bell, Kacper Potulski – Philipp Mwene, Kaishu Sano, Nadiem Amiri, Nicolas Feratich – Paul Nebel, Armindo Sieb, Arno Nordén.

Team News: Mainz

Defender Anthony Caci will miss the match due to injury.

Zrinjski

Zrinjski’s Current Form

Igor Štimac’s squad demonstrated their prowess by overwhelmingly defeating Lincoln Red Imps (5-0) at home in the first round. This comprehensive victory marked Zrinjski’s largest winning margin in the history. However, it’s also only their third win in their last 12 matches in this European competition, alongside one draw and eight losses. Remarkably, the team has kept a clean sheet in only two of their previous 14 fixtures. The Bosnian outfit currently leads the overall group standings.

• Zrinjski has suffered defeats in six of their last seven away matches in the .
• At least one team failed to score in five of their last seven away matches in this European competition.
• The Bosnian side conceded exactly one or two goals in seven of their last eight away fixtures.

Expected Lineup for Zrinjski (4-5-1)*

Expected Lineup for Zrinjski

Goran Karačić – Marko Vranjković, Slobodan Jakovljević, Duje Dujmović, Petar Mamić – Karlo Abramović, Neven Đurasek, Antonio Ivančić, Igor Savić, Mario Ćuže – Nemanja Bilbija.

Referee

Referee Profile

Jamie Robinson (Northern Ireland)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 6 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 38;

Average yellow cards per match – 6.3;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 27;

Penalties awarded – 17%.

Mainz – Zrinjski Match Prediction

Match Prediction Analysis: Mainz

Mainz, lacking extensive European experience, often struggles to deliver high-scoring performances even against less-fancied opponents. In their six home European matches, Mainz has exceeded two goals only once, and in four of those games, they managed to score just a single goal. Furthermore, in 14 of their last 15 home Bundesliga fixtures, the team rarely scored more than two goals.

Match Prediction Analysis: Zrinjski

While Zrinjski rarely achieves favorable results on the road, they tend to make it difficult for their opponents to score freely. In their previous nine away matches, the Bosnian side conceded more than two goals on only one occasion. Moreover, during this period, Zrinjski faced formidable opponents like AZ Alkmaar and Aston Villa, who each managed to score only one goal against them.

Final Prediction and Bet

Considering these factors, I believe the German side will find it challenging to score more than two goals against the visitors. My prediction is: Mainz Total Goals Under 2.5 with odds of 1.86

Note on Lineups

* The starting lineup for each team is based on their last match in this tournament.