AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen Prediction

AZ Alkmaar hosts Groningen on 8 November 2026 at 18:45 as clear favorites, but four matches without a win have eroded their margin. AZ created chances against Ajax and Twente despite losing both, with Wesley Hudt heading dangerously from a corner and Mex Merdink finding himself directly in front of the goalkeeper before Mark-André ter Stegen intervened. The return of Kees Smit expands attacking options, though the midfielder is not yet fit to start after injury. AZ's problem is precision in the final third, not a shortage of moments.

Groningen score regularly but lose matches through defensive lapses. They netted twice each against Ajax, NEK, and Sparta across three recent rounds, collecting only one point. Against Sparta, Marco Rente lost possession before his own penalty area, and Hans Hateboer and goalkeeper Étienne Vaessen collided attempting to play offside. Groningen have conceded ten goals in three matches, yet their attack creates danger through runs behind the defense. Tom van Bergen scored after Hateboer's pass and forced another save. These openings can trouble AZ when the home defense pushes higher.

Form and H2H

AZ won three of their last ten matches at home, drawing two and losing five, averaging 1.10 goals for and 1.20 against. Groningen won two of ten away, drew three, and lost five, averaging 2.00 goals for and 2.40 against. Head-to-head favors AZ: they won 3–0 in August 2011 and 2–0 in February 2014, though Groningen took a 1–0 victory in February 2013 and won 2–1 in October 2013.

Best Bet

Groningen Handicap +1.5. AZ will likely score, but Groningen's attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities make a comfortable home win unlikely. At 1xBet, this handicap trades at 1.55. A one-goal AZ victory or any Groningen result covers the bet.

Odds to Watch

Home win at 1xBet is 1.55, 1Win is 1.46, and 22Bet is 1.50. Draw at 1xBet is 4.64, 1Win is 4.83, and 22Bet is 4.75. Away win at 1xBet is 5.52, 1Win is 6.2, and 22Bet is 6.14. Groningen's ability to score in open play makes the draw a live possibility despite AZ's home advantage.