Burnley vs Derby Prediction

Burnley host Derby County on 19 September 2026 at 17:00 in a Championship fixture where the home side are favored to win. Burnley's recent form shows five draws and five losses across their last ten matches, averaging 0.90 goals for and 1.80 against. Derby arrive in worse shape: one win, two draws, and seven losses in the same span, with 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. The prediction is Burnley 1–0 Derby, a low-scoring outcome that reflects both sides' defensive struggles and limited attacking output.

Form and H2H

Burnley's home record is fragile. Five consecutive draws followed by five losses suggests a team unable to convert pressure into wins, though they do limit damage—1.80 goals conceded per game is respectable. Derby's away form is dire: seven losses in ten outings and a goal difference of minus 0.90 per match. Neither side is scoring freely. Burnley average under one goal per game at home; Derby average 0.80 on the road. This points to a tight, low-scoring contest where set pieces and individual moments matter more than sustained attacking play.

Best Bet

Back Burnley to win at 2.13 with 1xBet or 2.12 with Mostbet. Derby's away form is the deciding factor—seven losses in ten matches is a pattern, not noise. Burnley at home, despite their recent struggles, remain the stronger proposition. A 1–0 scoreline reflects the expected defensive solidity and lack of goals from both teams.

Odds to Watch

Under 2.5 goals is the supporting play. Both teams average under one goal per game in their respective positions, and Burnley's clean sheet odds at 2.63 suggest confidence in a low-scoring frame. The draw at 3.36 (1xBet) or 3.23 (Mostbet) offers value if you expect Burnley's home form to continue producing stalemates, but Derby's away record makes the home win the sharper choice.