Çorum FK vs Alanyaspor Prediction

Çorum FK host Alanyaspor on 19 September 2026 at 17:00 in a Süper Lig fixture that pits two teams moving in opposite directions. Çorum have won five of their last ten matches but remain defensively fragile, conceding 1.31 goals per game. Alanyaspor arrive unbeaten in three, having won two and drawn one, and have tightened their shape considerably—they concede just 1.28 per match and have allowed only one goal across their last three outings.

The teams met on 4 December 2025 with Alanyaspor winning 5–0, a scoreline that underscores Çorum's vulnerability at the back. Since then, Çorum have oscillated wildly: they beat Samsonspor 5–1 away and Eyüpspor 3–0 at home, but lost 6–2 to Besiktas and 1–0 to Kasimpasa. Their expected goals against (xGA) sits around 9.65 across five matches, yet they have conceded 13—a sign they are leaking more than their underlying defensive quality suggests. Alanyaspor, by contrast, have posted xG of 5.87 and scored six, meaning their attacking output aligns with the chances they create. Their xGA is 4.96 against four conceded, indicating stable, predictable defending.

Form and H2H

Çorum's last five matches average 4.4 total goals, driven by explosive attacking spells. They have scored 22 goals in that span but also shipped 13. Alanyaspor's recent five matches average 2.2 total goals. Away from home, Alanyaspor have scored a maximum of one goal in 13 of their last 15 matches and have stayed under 3.5 goals in 12 of 15 away fixtures. They have held a +1.5 handicap in all ten of their recent away games.

The direct history is stark: Alanyaspor's 5–0 victory in December shows what can happen when Çorum's leaky defence faces a clinical opponent. However, Alanyaspor's current form is more conservative than that result. In their last three matches, they have won 1–0 against Eyüpspor, 1–0 against Rizesor, and drawn 2–2 with Gaziantep and 1–1 with Gaziantep. This is a team that wins tight matches and travels with discipline.

Best bet

Under 3.5 goals is the core play. Çorum can score—their recent firepower is real—but Alanyaspor's away-match profile, their unbeaten run, and their tendency to cap totals at three goals suggest a controlled contest. Alanyaspor's xG and actual goals align closely, meaning they are unlikely to overperform. Çorum's recent xG of 2.91 against nine goals scored hints at unsustainable finishing; regression is likely. The 12-of-15 trend holding under 3.5 away from home for Alanyaspor carries weight.

Odds to watch

With no partner prices currently available, monitor the 1X2 market as odds are set. Alanyaspor's unbeaten streak and superior defensive stability make them the value play, while Çorum's home advantage and recent attacking form offer appeal for those backing the home side. The Under 3.5 market should offer value given Alanyaspor's disciplined away record and Çorum's defensive inconsistency, even if their last two performances suggest they can score freely.