Inter vs Fiorentina Prediction

Inter host Fiorentina on 25 October 2026 at 14:30 at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A's eighth round. Inter lead the league in goals scored at exactly 3.0 per match across seven games, while their matches average 4.29 goals total—the highest in the division. Fiorentina sit 18th and concede 2.43 goals per game, the worst defensive record in Serie A. Their matches average 3.57 goals despite Fiorentina scoring only 1.14 per outing. Inter played Shakhtar in the Champions League this week, which may trigger squad rotation and affect their opening tempo, though Fiorentina's defensive fragility makes high-scoring football the most realistic outcome.

Form and H2H

Inter have won their last two Serie A matches: 3–0 over Parma and 3–1 away at Bologna. They have not lost in their last 10 home league games by either scoreline or shots on target. In six of seven Serie A matches this season, Inter scored at least one goal in the first half. They attempted more than 11.5 shots in all 10 of their recent home fixtures and scored over 1.5 goals in eight of the last ten.

Fiorentina have struggled for consistency. They lost 1–3 at home to Como, fell 1–2 away at Genoa, and drew 1–1 with Napoli. In nine of their last ten away matches, they managed fewer than 13.5 shots. Fiorentina scored under 1.5 goals in eight of their last ten Serie A outings and registered fewer than 5.5 corners in nine of ten recent away games.

Best bet

Over 2.5. Inter average 3.0 goals per match and play in contests that total 4.29 goals on average. Fiorentina concede 2.43 per game and their matches average 3.57 goals. Both teams saw Over 2.5 land in six of seven matches at the season's start. Even accounting for Inter's midweek European fixture, Fiorentina's defensive vulnerabilities and Inter's attacking output make three or more goals the most probable scenario.

Odds to watch

Inter win trades at 1.35 with an implied probability of 70.7%. A draw sits at 5.50 (17.4%), while Fiorentina win is priced at 8.00 (11.9%). On the handicap line, Inter -1 is available at 1.50 against Fiorentina +1 at 2.55. For individual totals, Inter Over 2.5 goals is 2.05 and Fiorentina Under 0.5 goals is 2.25.