Pafos vs Riga Prediction

Pafos hosts Riga on 22 October 2026 at 19:45 in the second round of the UEFA Europa Conference League. Pafos lost 1–3 away to Atalanta in their opening group match and must respond at home. Riga drew 1–1 with Kairat in their first fixture and arrive on the back of a 2–1 domestic win over Super Nova. The hosts are favoured at 1.66 with 1xBet, but Riga's attacking consistency makes them a live proposition at 5.29.

Form and H2H

Pafos have won all five of their last Conference League matches at home but remain vulnerable in open play. They conceded three first-half goals to Atalanta and have shipped at least one goal in most recent outings. Over their last ten matches across all competitions, Pafos average 1.20 goals for and 0.90 against. Riga, by contrast, have scored in all ten of their last matches in every competition. They average 1.70 goals for and 1.10 against over the same span. On the road in the Conference League, Riga have won six of their last ten and remain unbeaten in nine of ten away group-stage matches. Their weakness is finishing: in eight of ten Conference League away games, they have scored no more than one goal.

Best bet

Riga over 0.5 goals. The visitors have scored in every match this season and create consistent pressure—they registered 13 or more shots in nine of their last ten Conference League games and hit the target four or more times in nine of ten. Pafos concede regularly despite their home record. Riga's away ceiling is low (one goal or fewer in eight of ten Conference League road games), but one goal is all this bet requires. Back Riga over 0.5 goals at 1.53 with 1xBet.

Odds to watch

Pafos are priced at 1.66 to win with 1xBet, implying a 57.6% win probability without margin. The draw sits at 4.08. Riga's win odds of 5.29 reflect their away record in the competition, though their attacking output and Pafos' defensive leaks suggest value in the draw or a Riga goal. Over 2.5 goals is not favoured by recent trends; Pafos have conceded fewer than 2.5 in nine of ten recent matches across all competitions.