Tunisia vs Uganda Prediction

Tunisia host Uganda on 24 September 2026 at 22:00 in Africa Cup of Nations qualification at Hammadi Agrebi Stadium in Radès. This is Tunisia's first official match since their World Cup elimination, which triggered a coaching overhaul. Mouine Chaabani takes charge with the task of restoring defensive structure and tactical discipline after squad upheaval. Tunisia play pragmatic football built on a solid mid-block, set-piece execution, and possession control at home. Uganda operate as a compact, physical unit on the road, sitting deep and looking to exploit mistakes on the counter through the flanks. The hosts will dominate possession and tempo from kickoff, seeking an early goal to settle nerves in front of their supporters. Uganda must absorb pressure, stay compact near their box, and avoid turnovers in dangerous areas. Tunisia's class advantage and home backing should prove decisive.

Form and H2H

Tunisia's last ten matches show one win, three draws, and six losses at home, averaging 0.63 goals for and 2.40 against. Away, they have won four of their last ten, with one draw and five losses, scoring 1.11 per game and conceding 1.88. Uganda's away record in the same span is four wins, one draw, and five losses. The teams met twice recently: Tunisia won 2-0 in January 2017 and 3-1 in December 2025. Tunisia's home record against the spread shows losses on the match winner bet but profit on draw backing. Uganda's away form has been unprofitable on most match winner and double chance markets.

Best bet

Tunisia to win at Melbet 1.45, 1xBet 1.45, or Mostbet 1.45. The hosts carry superior tactical setup, home advantage, and recent psychological momentum from their December victory. Uganda's away defensive approach will struggle against Tunisia's possession-based pressure and set-piece threat in the opening stages.

Odds to watch

The draw is available at Melbet 4.05 and 1xBet 4.05, with Mostbet offering 3.53. Uganda's compact low-block and physical approach could frustrate Tunisia if the hosts fail to break through early. An away win sits at Melbet 7, 1xBet 7, and Mostbet 6.3, a long price that reflects Uganda's underdog status but accounts for their counter-attacking threat if Tunisia overcommit.