Match Overview

The third-round group stage fixture of the 2025/26 will feature PSV from the Netherlands and Napoli from Italy. This encounter is scheduled for October 21st at the Philips Stadium in Eindhoven. This article provides a detailed prediction, betting tips, and relevant statistics for the PSV vs Napoli clash.

PSV Team Analysis

Peter Bos’s squad commenced their group stage campaign with a disappointing 1-3 home defeat against tournament newcomers, Belgian side Union. However, PSV partially redeemed themselves in the second round, securing a 1-1 draw against Bayer Leverkusen on their home turf. Despite this, the club has failed to win in 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches (2 draws, 3 losses) and has conceded in ten consecutive fixtures. Currently, the team holds just one point, placing them 27th in the overall standings. It’s also worth noting that PSV has a strong home record against Italian clubs in European competitions, remaining unbeaten in 9 of their last 12 matches (7 wins, 2 draws).

PSV Key Statistics

• The club has avoided defeat in 11 of their last 13 home Champions League matches (7 wins, 4 draws).
• At least four goals have been scored in 5 of the team’s last 6 home European Cup encounters.
• PSV has netted exactly 1 or 2 goals in 8 of their last 11 home Champions League games.

PSV Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Matěj Kovář – Anass Salah-Eddine, Ryan Flamingo, Jarek Gąsiorowski, Mauro Júnior – Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari – Ivan Perišić, Guus Til, Dennis Man.

PSV Team News

Defenders Wessel Kooy and Killian Sildillia, alongside forward Ruben van Bommel, are currently sidelined due to injuries.

Napoli Team Analysis

Antonio Conte’s charges secured their inaugural victory in the current Champions League campaign last round, defeating Sporting CP 2-1 at home. This marks only Napoli’s second win in their last seven Champions League fixtures (2 draws, 3 losses). Furthermore, the Neapolitans have failed to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their last 12 matches in this competition. With three points, the team currently sits 19th in the tournament standings.

Napoli Key Statistics

• The club’s away record in the Champions League shows an uncompromising streak of 11 matches (5 wins, 6 losses).
• The team has scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 away European Cup fixtures.
• Napoli has conceded in 7 of their previous 9 away Champions League matches.

Napoli Predicted Lineup (4-5-1)

Alex Meret – Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Juan Jesus, Sam Beukema, Mathías Olivera – Leonardo Spinazzola, Billy Gilmour, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Kevin De Bruyne, David Neres – Lorenzo Lucca.

Napoli Team News

Defender Amir Rrahmani, midfielder Stanislav Lobotka, and striker Romelu Lukaku will miss the match due to injuries.

Match Referee

The match will be officiated by Daniel Siebert from Switzerland.

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated: 15 (International fixtures, 2024/25-2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows): 74;

Average yellow cards per match: 4.9;

Red cards shown: 6;

Average fouls per match: 23;

Penalties awarded: 13%.

PSV vs Napoli Match Prediction

At home, the Dutch side typically adopts an aggressive attacking approach, regardless of the opponent’s caliber. This open style of play consistently allows PSV to find the back of the net: in their last 13 home Champions League matches, the club’s players have scored in every single game. Furthermore, in seven of those fixtures, they have scored at least twice. However, PSV’s defensive line is not known for its reliability: in 13 of their previous 15 home European ties, the Dutch team failed to keep a clean sheet, and they conceded 10 goals in their last two home Champions League outings.

Napoli’s Offensive and Defensive Tendencies

The Neapolitans are also not one to simply defend; they dedicate significant effort to creating scoring opportunities. In their last 13 away Champions League encounters, Napoli’s players only failed to score in three matches, and in six of those games, they managed to net at least two goals against their opponents. Simultaneously, the Italian side often struggles with defensive lapses: over the same period, Napoli kept only three clean sheets and conceded a total of nine goals in their last three away Champions League fixtures.

Final Betting Tip

Considering the attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, I anticipate a high-scoring affair. Therefore, my prediction is: “Total Goals Over 2.5”. The original coefficient was 1.64.