Stuttgart — Mainz05 : Match Preview and Prediction for October 26,2025
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Stuttgart
Stuttgart’s Current Form: A Dominant Run
Stuttgart is currently in exceptional form. The team firmly holds a Champions League qualification spot, ranking fourth in the table with 15 points after seven matches. This impressive standing is no mere fluke; it’s a direct consequence of their high-quality play. In the domestic championship, ‘Die Schwaben’ have strung together a remarkable four consecutive victories, a clear testament to their strong performance.
Home Advantage and Recent Performance
Their previous league fixture against Wolfsburg served as a prime example of their prowess. They secured a commanding 3-0 away victory, with Stuttgart dictating the pace of the game, fashioning 4 clear scoring opportunities and registering 7 shots on target. Furthermore, the team has maintained an impeccable home record this season, clinching wins in every single match played at the MHP Arena. It’s also noteworthy that Stuttgart has remained undefeated against Mainz on their home turf in their last five encounters.
Analyzing the European Setback
Indeed, they suffered a 0-1 defeat to Fenerbahçe in the Europa League. However, it’s crucial to examine the statistics rather than just the final score. Stuttgart dominated possession with 65% of the ball, completed 485 passes compared to their opponent’s 262, and emerged victorious in more duels. A narrow one-goal loss, particularly from a penalty, in such a performance, is more of an unfortunate anomaly that in no way diminishes the fact that Sebastian Hoeneß’s squad is in stellar condition.
League Standings
Injuries and Suspensions
- Injury Ermedin Demirovic Starter FWD
10 matches played5 goals scoredOctober 5 out since3 matches missed - Injury Justin Diehl Rotation FWD0 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 18 out since3 matches missed
- Injury Stefan Drljaca Reserve GK0 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 5 out since5 matches missed
- Injury Dan-Axel Zagadou Reserve DEF1 match played0 goals scoredOctober 23 out since1 match missed
Players Doubtful
- Injury Silas Rotation FWD0 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 9 out since2 matches missed
Players Returned
- Injury Pascal Stenzel Rotation DEF0 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 9 out since2 matches missed
- Injury Yannick Keitel Rotation MID0 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 25 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Leonidas Stergiou Rotation DEF0 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 25 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Noah Darvich Reserve MID0 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 25 out since0 matches missed
- Injury Ameen Al-Dakhil Reserve DEF2 matches played0 goals scoredOctober 18 out since1 match missed
Mainz 05
Mainz’s Challenging Situation: Struggling for Survival
In stark contrast, Mainz 05 finds itself in a dramatically different predicament. The team is languishing in 16th place, occupying a relegation playoff spot, having accumulated a mere 4 points. Their performance in the last five rounds has been abysmal, marked by four defeats. Their defense is conspicuously fragile, a fact underscored by statistics: Mainz has failed to keep a clean sheet in 18 consecutive matches, equaling their unenviable club record.
Recent Match Outcomes and Statistical Weaknesses
The outcomes of their recent fixtures speak volumes. They include a 3-4 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, a crushing 0-4 loss against Hamburg, and a 0-2 reverse against Dortmund. The team concedes goals at an alarming rate, having allowed 14 goals in just 7 matches, and is particularly susceptible in the first half, where 9 of these goals were conceded. Their attacking prowess is equally underwhelming: Mainz has registered a paltry 21 shots on target throughout the season – the worst record in the entire league.
The Misleading Conference League Victory
Their 1-0 victory in the Conference League against Zrinjski Mostar should not be misconstrued as a sign of improvement. Mainz played at home against the Bosnian champions and enjoyed a numerical advantage for over a half following an opponent’s sending-off. Despite these favorable conditions, Bo Henriksen’s side managed to score only a single goal and created very few chances, showcasing a performance that was far from convincing.
League Standings
Injuries and Suspensions
- Injury Anthony Caci Starter DEF6 matches played0 goals scoredSeptember 20 out since5 matches missed
- Injury Maxime Dal Reserve DEF0 matches played0 goals scoredFebruary 8 out since30 matches missed
Players Returned
- Injury Casey Bos Reserve FWD0 matches played0 goals scoredAugust 9 out since12 matches missed
Concluding Thoughts and Prediction Basis
Here, the situation is remarkably clear if one disregards sentimentality and focuses solely on the undeniable facts. On one side, Stuttgart stands as a top-4 team, having achieved impressive momentum in the championship and demonstrating particular strength when playing at home. They boast one of the league’s most solid defenses and an exceptionally well-structured game plan, characterized by a high percentage of ball possession.
Callum Harding
