Match Overview

The UEFA 2025/26 group stage Matchday 3 fixture between Villarreal (Spain) and Manchester City (England) will take place on October 21st at the Estadio de la Cerámica. This is a forecast and betting pick, including odds and statistics for the Villarreal vs Manchester City encounter.

Villarreal Analysis

Villarreal’s Current Form

The Valencian side has only managed to collect 1 point so far, placing them at the 26th position in the table. The team suffered a 0-1 away defeat to Tottenham in the first round, and then drew 2-2 at home against Juventus in the next match. Overall, the Spaniards have been winless in this European competition for five consecutive games, with 2 draws and 3 losses.

Villarreal Key Statistics

• Villarreal has failed to win in their last 8 matches against Premier League representatives, recording 3 draws and 5 losses.
• At home in this tournament, the Spaniards have only 2 victories in their previous 11 games (3 draws and 6 losses).
• The Valencians have conceded at least two goals in 8 of their last 11 home matches.

Villarreal’s Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)

Luiz Júnior – Rafa Marín, Sergi Cardona, Santiago Mouriño, Renato Veiga – Daniel Parejo, Santi Comesaña, Pape Gueye, Tajon Buchanan – Georges Mikautadze, Nicolas Pépé.

Villarreal Injury Report

Defenders Logan Costa, Juan Foyth, Willy Kambwala, and forward Pau Cabanes are sidelined due to injuries.

Manchester City Analysis

Manchester City’s Current Form

The Mancunians are currently undefeated and sit eighth in the overall group stage standings with 4 points. They started the tournament with a 2-0 victory over Napoli at home, and then drew 2-2 away against Monaco in the second round. Pep Guardiola’s side could have secured more, but conceded a late penalty goal to the Monegasques after the 90th minute. It’s also worth noting that in their last 9 matches, the “Citizens” have only achieved 2 wins (2 draws and 5 losses).

Manchester City Key Statistics

• Both teams scored in 7 of Manchester City’s last 9 matches in this European competition.
• The English side has won 5 of their last 6 encounters against Spanish clubs in the group stage.
• The “Citizens” are on a 5-match winless streak away from home in the (1 draw and 4 losses).

Manchester City’s Predicted Lineup (4-1-4-1)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Matheus Nunes, Rúben Dias, Joško Gvardiol, Nico O’Reilly – Nico González – Tijjani Reijnders, Oscar Bobb, Savio, Phil Foden – Erling Haaland.

Manchester City Injury Report

Midfielder Rodri Hernández is not yet ready to play due to injury. Defenders Abdukodir Khusanov and Rayan Aït-Nouri are also doubtful for the match due to injuries.

Match Official

Referee Information

Serdar Gözübüyük (Netherlands)

Referee Statistics

Matches officiated – 13 (International fixtures, 2024/25-2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 69;

Average yellow cards per match – 5.3;

Red cards shown – 3;

Average fouls per match – 26;

Penalties awarded – 46%.

Villarreal vs Manchester City Match Prediction

Match Prediction Analysis

The English side has a strong chance to break their 5-match winless streak in away matches in this European competition. The Valencian team has weak statistics in this tournament, having secured only 2 victories in their previous 11 home matches. Furthermore, Villarreal often concedes two or more goals even on their home turf in the . Such a vulnerable defense will struggle to contain Erling Haaland, who has already scored 36 goals in 32 group stage games in this European competition.

Historical Context and Conclusion

It’s also worth noting that over the past 15 years, the Valencian team has played 3 home matches against English opponents and lost all of them, conceding at least two goals in each. In the 2011/12 season, Manchester City even won 3-0 at this very stadium. Therefore, in this fixture, I lean towards the visitors.

Final Prediction

My prediction is – “Manchester City to Win” with odds of 1.72