Bulgaria vs Iceland Prediction

Bulgaria host Iceland on 13 November 2026 at 22:45 in Nations League Group C4. Iceland arrive as group leaders on eight points from four matches. Bulgaria won their previous fixture 2–0 away to Luxembourg but have not won at home in nine of their last ten official matches.

Iceland's recent form is stronger. They have not lost in seven of their last ten official matches across all competitions. Bulgaria average 1.84 goals for per game in their last ten but concede 1.28 per match. Iceland average 1.07 goals for but concede just 1.33 per game. The teams met on 3 October 2026 in Reykjavik, where Iceland won 3–0.

Form and H2H

Bulgaria's Nations League campaign has been blunt. They scored three goals across four matches before beating Luxembourg. In nine of their last ten official matches, they have failed to reach 2.5 goals. Defensively, they conceded 1.73 expected goals per match in their four Nations League games. At home, Bulgaria have won only one of their last ten matches.

Iceland conceded 0.25 goals per match across four Nations League fixtures and generated 1.83 expected goals per game. In nine of their last ten official matches, opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals. The 3–0 win in Reykjavik showed Iceland's attacking edge and Bulgaria's defensive vulnerability. Iceland also drew twice with Estonia (1–1 and 0–0) in this campaign, suggesting they do not always convert dominance into wins.

Best bet

Iceland with handicap (0) at 1xBet offers 1.9. Bulgaria's attacking output has been consistently low, and Iceland's defensive record in the Nations League is among the group's best. A draw or Iceland win covers the spread comfortably given recent head-to-head form and the underlying expected goals metrics.

Odds to watch

Iceland win is priced at 1.9 with 1xBet. The draw sits at 3.6. Bulgaria win reaches 4.38. Iceland's eight-point lead and superior form make the away win the most likely outcome, though Bulgaria's home record and Iceland's occasional draws with weaker opponents leave room for a stalemate.