Portugal vs Denmark Prediction

Portugal hosts Denmark on 14 November 2026 at 22:45 in a UEFA Nations League clash at the Estádio Municipal de Braga. Portugal enters as heavy favourites, unbeaten in nine of their last ten official matches and dominant at home in the Nations League. Denmark arrive without several key players but carry a potent attacking threat, having scored in each of their last ten matches across all competitions.

Portugal's defence has conceded an average of one goal per Nations League match this season, though left-back Nuno Mendes misses out through injury. Denmark's attacking unit has generated 1.34 expected goals per Nations League game, but injuries to Kasper Dolberg and Patrick Dorgu limit their offensive firepower. Both teams have shown reluctance to generate high shot volumes in recent outings: Portugal allowed fewer than 13.5 shots in each of their last ten home Nations League matches, while Denmark fired fewer than 13.5 shots in each of their last ten away games in the tournament.

Form and H2H

Portugal won 4–2 at home to Denmark on 1 October, extending their recent dominance in the fixture. The sides have met four times since 2012, with Portugal claiming three victories. In their last ten home Nations League matches, Portugal have failed to lose in nine, averaging 1.91 goals for and 0.80 against. Denmark have won four of their last ten away matches across all competitions, averaging 1.70 goals for and 1.43 against.

Portugal's recent run includes wins over Norway (2–1), Denmark (4–2), and Wales (1–0). Denmark beat Wales 1–0 on 4 October but lost to Portugal four days earlier. In nine of Denmark's last ten matches across all competitions, both teams have combined for more than 5.5 shots on target.

Best bet

Denmark over 0.5 goals. The visitors have scored in ten consecutive official matches and face a Portugal defence weakened by Mendes' absence. Despite injury concerns to Dolberg and Dorgu, Denmark's attacking intent remains consistent. At 1xBet, a Portugal win is priced at 1.53, with the draw at 4.7 and a Denmark win at 6.11. The individual total of Denmark over 0.5 goals offers value given their proven goalscoring streak and Portugal's defensive vulnerabilities this season.

Odds to watch

Portugal are clear favourites at 1.53 with 1xBet. The draw sits at 4.7, while Denmark's upset win is available at 6.11. Portugal's last-ten profit trend on the match winner stands at +0.70, suggesting consistent value in backing the home side. Denmark's draw profit trend shows +11.23 over the same period, though their match winner trend is negative at -1.57, reflecting the difficulty of securing an away victory against a strong Portugal outfit.