AC Milan vs Benfica Prediction

AC Milan hosts Benfica on 16 September 2026 at 22:00 in the opening round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Milan are unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, winning three and drawing twice. Benfica arrive on a five-game winning streak, though four of those came in the Portuguese league. The visitors' schedule is tight: only two full days separate their 3–1 home win over Gil Vicente from this trip to the San Siro.

Form and Head to Head

Milan have scored in all four of their league matches this season and failed to find the net in just one of their last ten games across all competitions. Their recent 2–2 draw with Lazio showed resilience, trailing 0–2 at halftime before Diego Moreira's brace leveled the match. In nine of ten recent games involving Milan, at least two goals were scored. Benfica scored 36 goals in their last ten matches, averaging 3.6 per game, and have netted in every single one of those ten outings. Nine of Benfica's last ten matches finished over 2.5 goals. The clubs' only previous meeting came in July 2019, when Benfica won 1–0 in Milan.

Best Bet

Over 2.5 goals is the pick. Benfica's consistency in finding the net—ten consecutive matches with a goal—combined with Milan's recent attacking form makes the third goal a realistic target. The bet does not require a high-scoring affair; a 2–1 or 1–2 scoreline qualifies. In eight of Milan's last ten games, three or fewer goals were scored, and Benfica saw four or fewer in seven of their last ten, so an explosive scoreline is not necessary. Benfica's nine-match streak over 2.5 provides the strongest statistical foundation. At Mostbet, Over 2.5 is available.

Odds to Watch

Milan are favored at 2.16 with Melbet, 2.21 with 1xBet, 2.1 with 1Win, and 2.16 with Mostbet. A draw is priced between 3.47 and 3.61 across the same operators. Benfica's win ranges from 3.17 to 3.31. Both teams scoring is listed at 1.60, reflecting the market's expectation that both sides will find the back of the net.