Alaves vs Valencia Prediction

Alaves host Valencia on 15 September 2026 at 21:00 in a La Liga clash between a home side in strong form and an away team struggling on the road. Alaves have won five of their last ten matches at Mendizorrotza, conceding fewer than one goal per game on average. Valencia arrive winless in seven away outings, shipping 1.7 goals per fixture. The visitors' attacking output has dried up too, averaging 0.6 goals scored in their last ten road trips. This imbalance in recent form points toward a low-scoring contest with Alaves favored to control play.

Form and H2H

Alaves' home record shows five wins, three draws, and two losses across ten matches, with an average of 1.82 goals for and 0.88 against. Valencia's away form is dire: one win, two draws, and seven losses, averaging 0.60 goals for and 1.70 against. Head-to-head meetings since 2017 have been competitive, with the sides splitting wins and drawing once in 2020. Valencia won three of the last five encounters, but that record masks their current away-day collapse. Alaves' profit on home wins stands at 5.05 units over the sample period, while Valencia's away wins have lost 5.04 units.

Best Bet

Back the draw at 1X2. Alaves 1–1 Valencia captures the likely outcome: Alaves will press their advantage at home and score, but Valencia's defensive solidity on the road should hold firm enough to earn a point. Both teams have scored in four of the last six head-to-head meetings. The draw has returned a loss of 1.77 units historically, but that reflects Valencia's stronger away record in earlier seasons; current form favors a stalemate.

Odds to Watch

Over 1.5 goals offers value given Alaves' attacking threat and Valencia's leaky away defense. Under 2.5 goals is the safer lean if you expect a cagey, low-scoring affair. Both Teams to Score carries appeal at standard odds, as Alaves score regularly at home and Valencia have conceded in most recent away matches. The correct score 1–1 remains the sharpest single prediction for this fixture.