Auxerre vs Nice Prediction

Auxerre host Nice on 12 September 2026 at 21:45 in Ligue 1's fourth round. Both teams have stumbled early: Auxerre lost all three opening matches (2–5 to Lens, 1–3 to Angers, 1–3 to Lyon) and sit 18th with zero points and a goal difference of 4–11. Nice drew twice (0–0 with Lorient, 1–1 with Le Mans) and lost 0–3 to Paris, leaving them with one goal in three games—the worst attacking return in the division. Will Still took over Auxerre in summer; Olivier Pantaloni arrived at Nice and overhauled the squad, but the attack remains uncoordinated after two blank friendlies against Cagliari and Hull City.

Form and H2H

Auxerre's last ten home matches brought four wins, two draws, and four losses, averaging 1.68 goals for and 1.87 against. In six of their last eight Ligue 1 home games, they did not lose. Nice's away form is worse: three wins, five draws, and two losses in ten matches, averaging 1.16 goals for and 0.71 against. Crucially, Nice have not won in five consecutive league away games. Head-to-head history shows no clear pattern: the sides drew 1–1 in October 2022 and March 2023, and drew 0–0 in January 2024. Nice won 3–2 at home in October 2018; Auxerre won 2–1 at home in December 2011.

Nice's attacking weakness is stark. In nine of their last ten away league matches, they managed no more than 12 shots on target. In the same span, they scored at most once in nine of ten league games. Auxerre's defence is fragile—11 goals conceded in three matches, an average of 3.67 per game and the worst in Ligue 1. However, Auxerre's attack is also blunt: in eight of ten recent league matches, they fired no more than 12 shots on target.

Best bet

Auxerre to win or draw (Ф1(0)). Nice must win to take points away from home, but they have not won in five consecutive away league matches and scored only once in three games this season. Auxerre do not need to win—a draw returns the stake. At home, Auxerre have not lost in six of eight recent league matches. The pick reflects Nice's attacking impotence and Auxerre's home resilience, not confidence in a home victory. Melbet offer Ф1(0) at 2.87, 1xBet at 2.98, 1Win at 2.52, Mostbet at 2.95, and 22Bet at 2.94.

Odds to watch

Auxerre win is priced at 2.87 (Melbet), 2.98 (1xBet), 2.52 (1Win), 2.95 (Mostbet), and 2.94 (22Bet). The draw sits at 3.34 (Melbet), 3.48 (1xBet), 3.3 (1Win), 3.41 (Mostbet), and 3.45 (22Bet). Nice win trades at 2.46 (Melbet), 2.55 (1xBet), 2.7 (1Win), 2.48 (Mostbet), and 2.43 (22Bet). Under 2.5 goals is worth monitoring given both teams' poor attacking form and Auxerre's defensive struggles, though individual totals and goal markets carry risk when one side cannot score.