Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje Prediction

Bayer Leverkusen host NK Celje on 16 September 2026 at 22:00 in the opening match of the UEFA Europa League league phase. The pick is Leverkusen -1.5 (Ф1(-1,5)): a home win by at least two goals. Leverkusen scored three or more in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions and found the net in 9 of 10. At home, they conceded no more than two goals in 9 of 10 recent matches. Celje arrive weakened after losing 2:1 to Bravo three days before this trip, with midfielder Marko Kvesic injured in the 33rd minute. The Slovenian side do score regularly—9 of 10 recent matches produced at least one goal—but the class gap and Leverkusen's firepower at BayArena make a two-goal margin the likeliest outcome.

Form and H2H

Leverkusen drew 2:2 with Augsburg in their last Bundesliga outing on 12 September, though they generated 2.10 xG and created enough chances to win. Manager Carlos Martínez has shifted to a four-defender setup from five, restructuring the defence for the Europa League cycle. Musa Diaby returned to the squad after missing the start of the season. Leverkusen won 7 of their last 10 matches, drew 1, and lost 2, averaging 2.70 goals for and 1.00 against. Celje have won 4 of 10 away matches, drawn 2, and lost 4, averaging 1.30 goals for and 1.20 against. Away from home, Celje keep matches tight: 8 of 10 recent away games produced five or fewer total goals. They commit no more than 13 fouls in 8 of 10 recent away matches and face opponents who average five or fewer corners in 9 of 10 such games.

Best Bet

Leverkusen -1.5. The hosts have the attacking depth and home record to cover a two-goal spread. Celje's injury troubles and recent loss to Bravo leave them vulnerable to a heavy defeat. Mostbet prices Leverkusen win at 1.15, a strong favourite, but the -1.5 handicap at 1.61 (via Melbet) offers better value given Leverkusen's recent output and defensive solidity at home. Celje scored in 9 of 10 recent matches, so a clean sheet is not guaranteed, but two goals from Leverkusen remains the most probable outcome.

Odds to Watch

Leverkusen win trades at 1.15 (Mostbet), 1.16 (Melbet), 1.18 (1Win), and 1.19 (1xBet). A draw is priced 7.9 (Melbet and Mostbet), 6.8 (1Win), and 8.1 (1xBet). Celje win sits at 15 (Melbet), 14 (Mostbet), 12.5 (1Win), and 15.5 (1xBet). Over 2.5 goals is the preferred total market, with Leverkusen's individual total over 1.5 at 1.16 (Melbet) reflecting their prolific home form. Celje's individual total under 1.5 is heavily favoured, underlining the gap in attacking threat.