Chelsea vs Hull City Prediction

Chelsea host Hull City on 12 September 2026 at 17:00 in the Premier League's fourth round. The hosts are heavy favorites after opening the season with 2.67 goals per game, joint-best in the division. Hull arrive as newly promoted visitors who have conceded zero goals in their opening fixtures but face a Chelsea side that has scored at least three goals in eight of their last ten home league matches.

Chelsea beat Brighton 4–3 in their opener before losing 1–2 to Arsenal. Hull won their first three matches without conceding, then drew 0–0 with Aston Villa in the league before losing 0–1 to Sunderland in the League Cup on 8 September. The visitors have not scored more than one goal in any of their last ten away league matches and have managed four or fewer shots on target in all ten of those games.

Form and Head to Head

Chelsea's home record shows control: opponents have been caught offside no more than twice in nine of their last ten Stamford Bridge appearances. However, the hosts have limited their own shot accuracy, recording five or fewer shots on target in eight of their last ten home matches. Chelsea conceded at least one goal in nine of their last ten home league games.

Hull's away form is severe. In all ten recent away league matches, they scored a maximum of one goal and took no more than four shots on target. In nine of those ten matches, they attempted fewer than 12.5 shots total. The head-to-head record favors Chelsea decisively: they won 2–0 in January 2017, 4–0 in February 2018, and 2–1 in January 2020, with Hull's only victory coming in a 2–3 loss at home in March 2015.

Best Bet

Under 3.5 goals is the play. Hull's attacking output—0.92 expected goals per match in their opening three games—offers little threat to push the total higher. Chelsea's home pressure typically converts to three goals rather than four. A 3–0 or 2–1 scoreline wins the bet. Hull have no recent precedent for scoring multiple away goals, and even Chelsea's efficient attack faces the margin that Under 3.5 provides. Back Under 3.5 at 1xBet 1.80, 1Win 1.80, Mostbet 1.80, or 22Bet 1.80.

Odds to Watch

Chelsea win is priced at 1xBet 1.24, 1Win 1.21, Mostbet 1.22, and 22Bet 1.24. The draw sits at 1xBet 6.59, 1Win 5.90, Mostbet 7.10, and 22Bet 7.31. Hull win trades at 1xBet 12.2, 1Win 14, Mostbet 13, and 22Bet 13.7. Chelsea's squad value exceeds Hull's by more than four times, and the hosts' early-season goal tally reflects their attacking superiority. Hull's defensive solidity has held so far, but the away record against top-six opposition remains untested at this level.