Cyprus vs Latvia Prediction

Cyprus hosts Latvia on 5 October 2026 at 19:00 in a UEFA Nations League fixture at Neo GSP in Nicosia. Cyprus are favored after beating Armenia 2-0, while Latvia lost to the same opponent 0-2 and have struggled to create chances throughout the campaign. The teams drew 0-0 when they met three days earlier on 28 September.

Form and H2H

Cyprus have won four of their last ten matches at home, conceding 1.12 goals per game and scoring 1.41. Latvia have won only two of their last ten away, averaging 0.46 goals for and 1.22 against. In nine of ten recent home games in the Nations League, Cyprus have kept the total under 3.5 goals. Latvia have failed to score more than one goal in any of their last ten matches across all competitions and have conceded fewer than 3.5 goals in nine of ten recent outings. The 0-0 draw three days ago showed both teams prioritize defensive structure over attacking tempo.

Best bet

Under 2.5 goals. Cyprus conceded fewer than 2.5 goals in nine of ten recent matches and rarely allow opponents to create many chances. Latvia's attack has been blunt—they have not scored more than one goal in ten consecutive matches. Cyprus scored fewer than 4.5 shots on target in nine of ten recent home Nations League games. The main risk is that Cyprus matches rarely finish goalless; eight of ten recent games saw over 1.5 goals. However, for three goals to land, one side would need to exceed their typical output significantly. Back Under 2.5 at 1.76 with Melbet or 1.75 with 1xBet.

Odds to watch

Cyprus are clear favorites. Home win trades at 1.71 with Melbet, 1.75 with 1xBet, 2.88 with Mostbet, and 3.06 with 22Bet. A draw sits at 3.7 with Melbet, 3.8 with 1xBet, 2.86 with Mostbet, and 3.13 with 22Bet. Latvia win is priced at 5 with Melbet, 5.11 with 1xBet, 2.79 with Mostbet, and 2.6 with 22Bet. Latvia have conceded 1.22 goals per away game on average and rarely force opponents to break down compact defenses, making a low-scoring home win the most likely outcome.