Estonia vs Iceland Prediction

Iceland host Estonia on 6 October 2026 at 21:45 in UEFA Nations League Group C. Iceland are heavy favourites at 1.27–1.30 across the market, with Estonia priced around 11.5–13.1 and the draw at 5.50–5.92. The hosts have won four of their last ten matches at home and conceded under one goal per game on average. Estonia arrive with three wins in ten away games and a leaky defence that has shipped 1.41 goals per match on the road. Both teams drew 1–1 when they last met in September 2026.

Form and H2H

Iceland play at home where they have not drawn in five consecutive Nations League matches and regularly press high, committing 11 or more fouls in eight of their last ten games across all competitions. They lost 0–3 to Argentina in their most recent friendly but that scoreline masks their typical output: in nine of ten recent matches, Iceland have stayed within two goals. Estonia have won just once in their last ten matches when scoring more than one goal. They scored in seven of their last ten games but have conceded in every recent outing. The teams drew 1–1 in Reykjavik on 26 September 2026 and 1–1 in January 2023.

Best bet

Estonia under 2.5 goals. Iceland rarely score three in a match—in nine of their last ten games they stayed at two goals or fewer. Estonia do not force open play: in nine of ten recent matches they scored one goal or fewer, and they have never conceded three in a first half. If Estonia do not score, Iceland have no need to attack aggressively to win. The main risk is that Iceland matches often reach 1.5 goals combined, but for Estonia to stay under 2.5, Iceland must score three—a scenario their recent form does not support. Mostbet offer Iceland under 2.5 goals at 1.60.

Odds to watch

Iceland are 1.27 favourites at Mostbet and 1.26 at 1xBet. The draw sits at 5.50 on Mostbet and 5.92 on 1xBet. Estonia are 12 at Mostbet and 11.5 at 1xBet. Over 2.5 goals is available but Under 2.5 at 1.60 (Mostbet) reflects Iceland's reluctance to score three. Both teams to score is priced at 2.13 for yes and 1.68 for no, suggesting a one-sided result is more likely.