Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction

Estoril host Casa Pia on 20 September 2026 at 20:00 in Primeira Liga Matchday 7, with the home side desperate to break a ten-match winless run. Os Canarinhos lost 1-0 to Braga last time out, conceding a late goal after Ferro's red card left them exposed. Ferro now serves a suspension, and forward Fabricio Garcia picked up a knock in that defeat, both absences weakening Estoril's setup. The hosts have managed just 0.60 goals per game across their last ten matches and failed to score in 60% of recent home fixtures. Casa Pia arrive from a 4-1 hammering at Porto but generated 1.53 expected goals in that loss, suggesting some attacking threat beneath the scoreline. The visitors have scored only 0.67 goals per game in their last ten and blanked in 80% of away matches. Estoril's head-to-head record favours them: they won 4-0 at home in November 2023 and 2-0 in January that year, though Casa Pia drew 2-2 at home in May 2023.

Form and H2H

Estoril's last ten reads W1-D4-L5, averaging 0.60 goals for and 1.10 against. Casa Pia sit W2-D1-L7 over the same span, scoring 0.67 and conceding 2.36 per game. The pair have met six times since 2020: Estoril won twice, Casa Pia never, with two draws and two Estoril victories. Only 42% of their last 12 head-to-head meetings produced four or more goals, pointing toward a low-scoring pattern.

Best Bet

Estoril 1-0 Casa Pia. Both teams have struggled to score consistently this season, and Estoril's home record against Casa Pia tilts the balance toward a narrow home win. The visitors' defensive fragility—conceding 2.36 goals per away game—offers Estoril an opening despite their own attacking struggles.

Odds to Watch

Under 1.5 goals sits at strong value given the attacking form of both sides. Estoril to win to nil reflects the visitors' inability to score on the road. The correct score 1-0 Estoril offers longer odds for those backing the specific outcome. Check Under 2.5 goals and Under 3.5 goals markets as well, since low-scoring matches dominate this fixture's recent history.