Italy vs Türkiye Prediction

Italy travel to Bursa on 5 October 2026 at 21:45 for a UEFA Nations League top-flight clash against Türkiye. The hosts have never beaten Italy in an official match, holding four draws and nine defeats across their history. Vincenzo Montella, Italy's former manager, now leads Türkiye and will face his native country in front of a hostile crowd at Bursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu. The teams drew 0-0 in a Bologna friendly before Euro 2024, but Italy won 3-0 at that tournament and 3-2 in a friendly in Konya.

Form and H2H

Türkiye's attacking play rests on young creative talent. Arda Güler and Can Uzun operate through the half-spaces with unorthodox dribbling, while İsmail Yüksek controls tempo. At home in Bursa, Türkiye press aggressively across the pitch with enormous emotional intensity. Their defensive line suffers from positional lapses when opponents counter, leaving gaps that sharper teams exploit.

Italy build around a powerful midfield anchored by Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali. Defensively they remain disciplined through Mancini and Calafiori. Moise Kean's runs in behind and Di Lorenzo's overlaps down the flanks form their attacking structure. Italy absorb early pressure in a low-to-mid block and methodically punish the spaces Türkiye leave open during attacking moves.

Best Bet

Both teams to score. Türkiye's attacking unit scores regularly at home in front of their fans, but their defense consistently allows opponents to create openings. Italy possess the quality to exploit those spaces. Melbet price this at 1.99, 1xBet at 1.99, and Mostbet at 1.99.

Odds to Watch

Italy's home win trades at 2.74 with Melbet, 2.76 with 1xBet, and 2.76 with Mostbet. The draw sits at 3.58 with Melbet, 3.63 with 1xBet, and 3.36 with Mostbet. A Türkiye win is priced 2.44 with Melbet, 2.54 with 1xBet, and 2.53 with Mostbet.