Sweden vs Poland Prediction

Sweden host Poland on 28 September 2026 at 21:45 in UEFA Nations League League B. Both teams sit in the same group and are competing for promotion. Sweden beat Romania 2-1 in their opening fixture, breaking a winless run that stretched back to the World Cup. Poland drew 0-0 with Bosnia and Herzegovina in their first match, creating chances but failing to convert. The teams have met three times since 2021: Sweden won 3-2 in June 2021, Poland levelled with a 2-0 victory in March 2022, and Sweden won again 3-2 in March 2026.

Form and H2H

Sweden's last ten games show four wins, three draws, and three losses at home, averaging 1.84 goals for and 2.11 against. Poland's away record over the same span is five wins, three draws, and two losses, with 1.40 goals for and 1.20 against. The recent head-to-head favours Sweden, who have won two of the last three meetings. Poland arrive without a win in their last four outings across all competitions: losses to Ukraine (0-2) and Sweden (2-3 in the World Cup playoff), plus draws with Nigeria (2-2) and Bosnia (0-0). Sweden's momentum shifted after beating Romania, though their World Cup campaign was underwhelming—one win over Tunisia (5-1), a draw with Japan (1-1), and elimination by France (0-3).

Best bet

Both teams to score offers value given Poland's attacking intent despite recent struggles and Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities. Poland will carry extra motivation after Sweden denied them a World Cup place in the playoff. Sweden's last-ten home record shows they concede regularly, averaging over two goals per game. At 1xBet, a Sweden win pays 1.95, but the draw at 3.88 reflects the competitive nature of this fixture and Poland's ability to frustrate at home and away.

Odds to watch

Sweden are slight favourites across the board. Melbet price a home win at 1.91, 1xBet at 1.95, and Mostbet at 1.86. The draw is available at 3.8 with Melbet, 3.88 with 1xBet, and 3.66 with Mostbet. Poland's away odds sit at 3.74 (Melbet), 3.82 (1xBet), and 3.6 (Mostbet). Given Poland's recent form and the playoff history between these sides, the draw represents the most balanced outcome.