Toulouse vs Le Havre Prediction

Toulouse host Le Havre on 19 September 2026 at 21:45 in Ligue 1's fifth round. Toulouse are 17th after four matches with two points and four goals scored. Le Havre sit 16th with two points from four games and only two goals across the season. Both teams struggle in front of goal, but Toulouse at least generate chances at home. In their last two matches, Toulouse fired 41 shots against Lyon and Lille combined without scoring. Le Havre have managed just one goal in three of their four league matches so far.

Form and H2H

Toulouse won three of their last ten home matches, drew four, and lost three, averaging 1.19 goals for and 1.35 against per game. Le Havre won two of their last ten away matches, drew three, and lost five, averaging 0.90 goals for and 1.20 against per game. The head-to-head record shows Toulouse dominating recently: they won 2–0 in September 2025 and 4–1 in February 2025, though Le Havre took a 2–1 victory in November 2023. The most recent meeting in November 2025 ended 0–0.

Toulouse dominate possession at home, out-shooting opponents in eight of their last ten Ligue 1 matches. Le Havre struggle on the road: in nine of their last ten away games, they failed to out-shoot their hosts. Le Havre have conceded at least two goals in three of their four league matches. Toulouse's problem is finishing, not creation. Le Havre average 0.5 goals per game this season, the second-lowest in the league, with an expected goals figure of 1.17.

Best bet

Under 2.5 goals. Le Havre have stayed at two goals or fewer in nine of their last ten away matches in Ligue 1. This season, they have exceeded two goals in only one of four league games. Toulouse create chances but have not scored at home against Lyon or Lille despite 41 total shots. Le Havre's attacking output remains minimal: eight of their last ten away games finished with one goal or fewer. Toulouse's weakness is finishing; Le Havre's is creating chances. The combination favours a low-scoring match.

Odds to watch

Toulouse are strong favourites at home. The 1X2 market reflects this disparity: Toulouse win is significantly shorter than a Le Havre victory. Over 3.5 goals sits at 2.95, suggesting bookmakers expect a tight, low-scoring contest. Toulouse over 1.5 goals is priced at 1.82, while Le Havre over 0.5 goals sits at 1.55. Both Toulouse and Le Havre to score is available at 1.82, only slightly shorter than both teams failing to score at 1.95, indicating genuine uncertainty about whether Le Havre can find the net at all.