Iceland vs Estonia Prediction

Iceland host Estonia in a UEFA Nations League fixture on 26 September 2026 at 19:00. The hosts arrive in poor form, winless in their last six matches across all competitions, though they showed attacking intent in recent domestic action. Real Sociedad forward Orri Oskarsson scored in a 3-2 win over Valencia last weekend before receiving a red card. Veteran Gylfi Sigurdsson continues to feature for Iceland after strong performances for Vikingur Reykjavik. Estonia come off consecutive 1-0 Baltic Cup wins over Faroe Islands and Lithuania, but their away record tells a different story: one win in five road matches with 2.80 goals conceded per game and no clean sheets during that stretch. Captain Karol Mets of Bochum and Thun's Mattias Kait lead the Estonian squad.

Form and H2H

Iceland have won 67 percent of their last three home matches, averaging 2.00 goals per game at Laugardalsvollur. They scored in two of those three outings. Estonia's away form is fragile: only 20 percent win rate in their last five road games, conceding 2.80 goals per match. The teams drew 1-1 when they last met on 8 January 2023.

Best bet

Iceland to win. The hosts' home record and Estonia's vulnerability on the road create a clear edge. Mostbet price this at 1.25, while 1xBet offers 1.30 and Melbet sits at 1.27. Estonia have failed to keep a clean sheet in five consecutive away matches and concede nearly three goals per road game. Iceland's attacking output at home, combined with Estonia's defensive fragility, makes a home victory the strongest play.

Odds to watch

Over 1.5 goals. Iceland's home matches average 2.67 total goals, while Estonia's away fixtures average 4.00. The combination of Iceland's attacking threat and Estonia's leaky defence suggests a high-scoring contest. Mostbet offers Over 1.5 at standard odds. Both teams to score is also worth considering given Estonia's ability to score in their recent Baltic Cup wins and Iceland's need to attack at home.