Slovenia vs Scotland Prediction

Slovenia host Scotland on 26 September 2026 at 16:00 in UEFA Nations League Group B1 at the Stožice stadium in Ljubljana. Slovenia are slight favourites at 2.54–2.70 across the market, but this is a low-scoring fixture waiting to happen. Slovenia arrive without Benjamin Šeško, their primary attacking outlet, after injury. In eight of their last ten matches across all competitions, Slovenia have scored no more than one goal. Scotland travel with serious absences: Scott McTominay, Che Adams, Kieran Tierney, and Kenny McLean are all out. New manager Steve Clarke is running his first camp with seven potential debutants in the squad, making cohesion unlikely on the road.

Form and Head to Head

Slovenia's recent record reads one win, five draws, and four losses in their last ten, averaging 0.93 goals for and 1.47 against. Scotland have won five of their last ten away from home but lost the other five, averaging 1.53 goals for and 1.18 against. The teams met twice in 2017: Scotland won 1–0 at home, then drew 2–2 in Ljubljana. Both sides have shown a tendency toward narrow results. In nine of Slovenia's last ten matches, both teams combined for no more than ten shots on target. Scotland have conceded no more than two goals in eight of their last ten outings, and their first-half totals have failed to breach 2.5 in nine of ten matches.

Best Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals. Slovenia without Šeško rarely break two goals, and Scotland under Clarke will not press from the start with half their squad missing. Every Scotland match in the last ten has contained at least one goal, so a blank is unlikely, but three goals demands an extra precision shot from one side. The odds at Mostbet are 1.20 for Over 3.5, which prices a high-scoring game as unlikely. Under 2.5 sits at 1.65 across the market, a fair price for a cautious opening fixture.

Odds to Watch

In the 1X2 market, Slovenia win is 2.54 at Mostbet and 2.65 at Melbet. The draw trades at 3.10 at Mostbet and 3.15 at Melbet. Scotland win is 2.68 at Mostbet and 2.79 at Melbet. Both teams to score is priced at 1.82 for no and 1.92 for yes, suggesting a single-goal margin is the likeliest outcome. Slovenia's individual total under 1.5 is 1.42, while Scotland's under 1.5 is 1.37, reflecting the attacking constraints both sides face.